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Investment Opinions

  • Equity Income image

    Tuesday, April 24, 2018

    Equity Income: A source of added value

    Five years have passed since the launch of GAM’s global equity income strategy. While half a decade is not a particularly long period of time, it nevertheless represents an opportunity to discuss the viability of the investment case in light of the current investment conditions. Do global equity income strategies (ie investments in companies with above average shareholder yields - through dividends and/or share buy-backs - financed by reasonably good business models) make sense in general? Or is it simply the case that they have benefited from falling bond yields and a reversal in this secular trend will spoil the party?

  • insights

    Monday, April 16, 2018

    What's happening in Russia

    With global equity markets slumping before staging a v-shaped recovery on the run up to the Easter holiday period, GAM’s investment experts give their view on the likelihood, and potential implications of, a US-inspired trade war.

  • Trade war icon

    Monday, April 09, 2018

    Navigating a potential trade war

    With global equity markets slumping before staging a v-shaped recovery on the run up to the Easter holiday period, GAM’s investment experts give their view on the likelihood, and potential implications of, a US-inspired trade war.

  • market volatility icon

    Friday, April 06, 2018

    The Post-New Normal Era

    As featured in Bloomberg Prophets, GAM’s Larry Hatheway believes that higher US wage inflation is leading market participants to doubt that the Fed can remain committed to "gradual normalisation."

  • em-why_now_icon

    Thursday, March 15, 2018

    German Equities – Consistent Rewards for Patient Investors

    The sudden return of sharp bouts of equity market volatility at the beginning of February 2018 served once more as a reminder to investors that there is never room for complacency in capital markets. The strong returns made in January 2018 evaporated within a short period of time. Oliver Maslowski, fund manager at GAM, on the merits of longer investment horizons, based on the German stock market’s example.

  • em_debt_icon

    Tuesday, March 13, 2018

    EM Debt: Beyond Asset Allocation

    Investing in emerging market debt should be all about value and selection, rather than trying to forecast the direction of the US dollar or movements in Treasury yields says GAM’s Enzo Puntillo.

  • em-centre-stage-icon

    Friday, February 23, 2018

    Can Emerging Markets Take Centre Stage?

    Emerging markets have weathered many a storm, including significant political turbulence over the last few years. But, following early February’s volatility surge, can they continue to rally? GAM’s Tim Love takes a look.

  • 8-reasons-to-fear-icon

    Wednesday, February 14, 2018

    Eight Reasons to Be Fearful for the Bond Market

    Traditional fixed income markets face a number of challenges over the coming year. Tim Haywood, investment director, highlights eight reasons to be fearful for the bond market and how absolute return strategies can exploit these conditions.

  • tighter_monetary_policy_icon

    Friday, February 09, 2018

    Time to Get Active: A Cyclical View

    GAM’s Matthew Beesley explores the historic dynamic between the outperformance of active versus passive funds and discovers that it demonstrates deeply cyclical tendencies.

  • volatility_icon

    Wednesday, February 07, 2018

    Return to Volatility

    GAM’s investment experts react to market moves this week that have marked a return of volatility after an unusual period of calm.

  • can-negative-be-positive-icon

    Wednesday, January 31, 2018

    From a Growth to a Value Bubble?

    The ‘value’ investment style endured a miserable year in 2017, but GAM’s Hans Ulrich Jost believes that we are seeing early indications which could herald a return to valuation-based stock picking.

  • helicopter_money_icon

    Tuesday, January 16, 2018

    Are Super-Elevated Profits Serving Investors Well?

    US profit margins as a percentage of GDP are close to all-time highs. For many, this is a sign of corporate health further corroborated by the S&P 500’s third quarter profit growth of over 11% on the previous year. Good news it would seem but GAM’s Julian Howard believes the real issue for investors is how long it will last and are sustained high profits even desirable?

  • inflation-is-back-icon

    Tuesday, January 09, 2018

    2018 Outlook – Investment Themes to Watch

    GAM’s investment experts highlight what they believe will be the top investment themes for 2018 in their specialist fields.

  • convertiles_icon

    Thursday, January 04, 2018

    2018 Outlook – Events to Watch out for this Year

    GAM’s investment experts highlight what they believe will be the key events to look out for over the course of 2018 in their specialist fields.

  • normalisation_icon

    Thursday, December 21, 2017

    Trouble With The Curve

    When what is supposed to be a curve is more akin to a flat line, it can be interpreted as a sign of trouble ahead, as GAM’s Julian Howard explains.

  • xmas-wish-2017-icon

    Tuesday, December 19, 2017

    An Investor’s Holiday Wish List

    This time last year, Larry Hatheway's single wish for 2017 was that greater empathy would enter the human consciousness and become manifest in areas such as modernity, immigration and free trade. Read his wish for 2017.

  • 2018-outlook-icon

    Tuesday, December 12, 2017

    2018 Outlook – The Merits of Active Management

    GAM’s investment experts share insights on how active management adds value in their specialist fields.

  • balanced-portfolio-icon

    Tuesday, November 28, 2017

    The Balanced Portfolio Has Had Its Time

    As originally featured in Bloomberg Prophets, Larry Hatheway believes the days are numbered for the multi-asset trinity of positive correlation, high return and low volatility.

  • dividends-icon

    Thursday, November 02, 2017

    The Importance Of Dividends

    With bond yields continuing to hover around historically low levels, GAM’s Adrian Gosden and Chris Morrison revisit the case for accruing and reinvesting dividend income from a portfolio of equities.

  • em-rally-icon

    Tuesday, October 31, 2017

    Can The Emerging Markets Rally Continue?

    Michael Biggs, investment manager, emerging markets fixed income at GAM explains why he believes the current emerging markets rally has further to go.

  • low-index-volatility-icon

    Thursday, October 05, 2017

    Low Index Volatility: Great Active Opportunities?

    Kenneth Liew, Portfolio Manager, Multi Asset Portfolio Solutions takes a look at low index volatility, important underlying trends – and the impact on portfolio construction.

  • active-fights-back-icon

    Monday, October 02, 2017

    Active Management Fights Back!

    Over the last few years, competition has increased in the asset management industry, fees have been under pressure and performance among active managers has, in aggregate, been disappointing. It wasn’t always this way. And we think it won’t be this way as we look forward.

  • stocks-shrug-bonds-icon

    Tuesday, August 29, 2017

    Why Stocks Can Shrug Off Bonds

    This year, equity markets have broadly advanced, despite significant gyrations in bond yields. To some, that seems odd. How can stocks ignore bond moves, in particular episodes of rising yields? Chief economist Larry Hatheway explains why.

  • sterling_icon

    Tuesday, August 08, 2017

    Sterling: Pounded Down Far Enough?

    The British pound has been the subject of repeated doom-mongering since the Brexit referendum more than a year ago. Joachim Corbach, GAM’s Head of Currencies and Commodities, questions whether there really is more material downside for sterling from the prevailing depressed levels. This article originally featured in Fund Strategy.

  • normalisation_icon

    Friday, August 04, 2017

    Normalisation: A Turning Point?

    Tim Haywood, investment director for fixed income, says that with policy normalisation from central bankers in both Europe and North America driving bond yields aggressively upwards, June may be remembered as a turning point for fixed income markets.

  • india-bull-market_icon

    Tuesday, July 25, 2017

    India: On the Cusp of a Multi-year Bull Market?

    Madhav Bhatkuly considers recent milestones for the Indian economy, including the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax bill and the rapid transformation of the financial services sector, and explains why Indian equities could be on the cusp of a multi-year bull market.

  • why-active-icon

    Wednesday, July 19, 2017

    Why Active?

    As featured in Citywire Wealth Manager, Larry Hatheway, chief economist and head of GAM Investment Solutions, explains how active and passive strategies play a part in GAM’s multi-asset portfolios.

  • the_feds_hands_are_tied_icon

    Tuesday, July 04, 2017

    The Fed May Not Have Investors' Backs For Much Longer

    The US equity market’s implicit guarantee against instability might be coming to an end. Julian Howard, Head of Multi Asset Solutions at GAM considers why now, and how investors can mitigate the risks and reposition for more reliable income.

  • ration-pricing-icon

    Friday, June 23, 2017

    Stocks Aren't as Pricey as This Ratio Suggests

    The Shiller P/E ratio is high, but a valuation-based crash is unlikely so long as global earnings continue to grow. As featured on Bloomberg, chief economist Larry Hatheway explains why.

  • uk-elections-icon

    Friday, June 09, 2017

    UK General Election Outcome – What Now for Markets?

    Charles Hepworth, investment director at GAM, comments on the outcome of the UK General Election.

  • uk-elections-icon

    Tuesday, June 06, 2017

    UK General Election – What are the Polls Indicating?

    Charles Hepworth, Investment Director at GAM, considers what the outcome of the UK General Election could mean for markets.

  • market_turmoil_icon

    Monday, June 05, 2017

    From Policy-Guided to Fundamentally-Driven Markets

    The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) was seen by some as having the potential to mark the end of capitalism as we know it. Within financial markets there is plenty of evidence to suggest this has indeed been the case.

  • wadhwani_us_election_icon

    Wednesday, May 31, 2017

    Why the End of the Trump Trade is Good for Markets

    The so-called Trump trade is in trouble. As featured in Citywire Wealth Manager, Julian Howard, Head of Multi Asset Solutions at GAM, explains why this is good for markets.

  • investing-into-the-future_icon

    Tuesday, May 02, 2017

    GAM Investment Conference: Investing into the Future

    Investors could be forgiven for being distracted by the persistent changes to the geopolitical landscape and for wondering what might happen next to cause further market uncertainty. Paying too much attention to short-term investment trends rather than the importance of longer-term investment planning can prove a costly distraction. The GAM managers give their thoughts on looking long-term for investment success.

  • eu_equities-icon

    Friday, April 21, 2017

    The Remote But Real Risk in European Equity Markets

    Political risk is very much back on the agenda and even seemingly remote out comes cannot be discounted. While Gianmarco Mondani, Roberto Cantaluppi and Paolo Longinotti are wary of potential turbulence, they are also optimistic about the return to the market of differentiation at the stock level.

  • cheer_or_fear_icon

    Wednesday, April 19, 2017

    Cheer or Fear? The European Investment Dilemma

    Europe’s election calendar reads like a political minefield, with prospects appearing all the more bleak with the French elections throwing up the possibility of a break-up of the euro zone and the European Union. Julian Howard, head of Multi Asset Solutions, considers the dilemma this presents for investors, particularly in light of an improving economic and earnings picture for both France and Europe.

  • you-probably-cant-lose-icon

    Tuesday, April 11, 2017

    A Game You 'Probably' Can't Lose

    GAM Systematic’s Dr Ewan Kirk and Dr Tom Gillam pay a short visit to a world of odds-based binary bets and apply their findings to a more familiar financial landscape.

  • pair-trades_icon

    Thursday, April 06, 2017

    Pair Trades to Pare Risk

    In recent years, accessing the cheap beta of equity markets has been one of the best ways to invest. However, with dispersion becoming increasingly evident and potential political storm clouds gathering on the horizon, GAM portfolio managers Andy Kastner and Désirée Mueller ponder whether it might be a good time to reconsider a market neutral approach to investing in European equities.

  • argentina-equities-icon

    Tuesday, April 04, 2017

    Argentina – Expecting Entry Points to Materialise

    Argentina’s economic history is complex and unfortunate, characterised by booms and dramatic busts in recent decades. Tim Love, Investment Director for emerging market equities, discusses why Argentinian equities will soon present a buying opportunity.

  • rising-tides-icon

    Thursday, March 30, 2017

    Beware a Receding Tide

    As featured in Investment Week, Niall Gallagher, Investment Director for European equities at GAM, considers the outlook for European markets.

  • normalisation_icon

    Tuesday, March 21, 2017

    Preparing for Normalisation

    US stock indices are trading at, or near record highs, US household wealth is booming and US inflation is edging ever closer to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2% target. Anthony Smouha and Gregoire Mivelaz, who co-manage a number of GAM’s credit strategies, ponder the implications of a potential ‘normalisation’ of monetary policy for fixed-income investors.

  • banks-buy-bad-news-icon

    Thursday, March 09, 2017

    Should Investors Switch into Cyclical Stocks?

    Since July 2016, we witnessed a massive rotation from the defensive segments of the equity market into cyclical stocks. Carlo Capaul, GAM’s Head of Global Equities in Zurich, believes that investors need to weigh up the risks carefully before jumping on a moving train.

  • trump-icon

    Monday, February 13, 2017

    Will Politics Trump Economics?

    President Donald Trump has inherited an economy that is in much better shape than his predecessor did eight years ago. Nonetheless the new president has ambitious plans for his first 100 days in office. As featured on CNBC, Larry Hatheway, Chief Economist and Head of GAM Investment Solutions, considers just how much President Trump can achieve and what the likely impact on capital markets will be.

  • wadhwani_us_election_icon

    Thursday, January 19, 2017

    Trump: Can He?

    The inauguration of Donald Trump as the 45th President of the United States will be held tomorrow in Washington, D.C, marking the commencement of his four-year term in office. As featured on Citywire Wealth Manager, Julian Howard, Head of Multi Asset Solutions at GAM, considers what would constitute truly successful US economic policy and whether President-elect Trump can deliver it.

  • all-hail-king-carry-icon

    Tuesday, January 10, 2017

    2017 Outlook – Contrarian Trades

    A number of major political and economic events shaped financial markets in 2016, forcing investors to navigate a landscape of heightened volatility. But with uncertainty likely to continue through 2017, GAM’s investment managers have identified some unique investment opportunities that go against the grain.

  • 5-things-to-watch-icon

    Thursday, January 05, 2017

    2017 Outlook – Key Events

    With so much happening in parallel across political, economic and financial landscapes, it seems daunting to try to identify the one event that shaped 2016. In the following short statements, our investment experts share their predictions on which events will prove pivotal in 2017.

  • xmas-wishes-icon

    Wednesday, December 21, 2016

    A Single Wish for 2017

    Twelve months ago Larry Hatheway published a holiday wish list of five things he hoped would prevail in 2016. Sadly, few of those wishes came true this year - so this year the list is pared to one.

  • tighter_monetary_policy_icon

    Monday, December 19, 2016

    2017 Outlook – The Investment Themes to Watch

    2016 was a year of erratic markets and geopolitical shocks that sent fundamentals into the shadows. Bourses moved on speculation and surprise, challenging market participants. GAM’s investment experts put forward their key themes for the year ahead.

  • productivity-is-everything-icon

    Thursday, December 08, 2016

    Productivity Growth Now?

    John Lambert, Investment Director at GAM, blows the productivity mismeasurment myth. The future is more hyperbole than hypergrowth.

  • us-election-comment3-icon

    Wednesday, November 09, 2016

    #PresidentTrump - What now for Markets?

    GAM investment managers comment on their sectors of expertise following the outcome of the US elections.

  • velazquez_icon

    Friday, September 16, 2016

    The Fed According to Velazquez

    The US economy remains in reasonably good health, while the global economy is still somewhat fragile. This puts the US Federal Reserve firmly into investors’ focus. For Carlo Benetti, Head of Market Research and Business Innovation at GAM, perspective is exactly what counts – changing it can yield surprising insights.

  • corp-bonds-insights-icon

    Tuesday, September 13, 2016

    Death of the 60:40 Portfolio?

    The portfolio construction favourite is no longer the safe bet it once was. With limited upside to bond and equity markets, Julian Howard, Investment Director at GAM, looks at alternative allocation approaches.

  • can-negative-be-positive-icon

    Tuesday, August 30, 2016

    Can Negative be Positive

    We live in a period of low growth and low yields. How can investors generate returns in this environment? Gianmarco Mondani, CIO of the non-directional equity team in Lugano, explains what he does to navigate the turbulent waters of the financial markets.

  • us_profits_icon

    Tuesday, August 23, 2016

    What Peak Profits Mean for Markets

    Corporate profits of listed companies around the world are declining after nearly two decades of growth relative to total output. Julian Howard, Investment Director in GAM’s Multi Asset Class Solutions team, explains the implications.

  • ces-conference-icon

    Wednesday, August 10, 2016

    Remember the Debt Passive Funds Owe Active Managers

    Larry Hatheway, Group Head of Multi Asset Portfolio Solutions and Group Chief Economist, looks at the arguments for active investment.

  • tighter_monetary_policy_icon

    Wednesday, July 27, 2016

    What's next for the EU banking sector?

    Comment from Davide Marchesin, fund manager in GAM’s non-directional equity team.

  • eu_equities-icon

    Monday, July 25, 2016

    Attractive European ABS

    Laurence Kubli and Matthias Wildhaber, portfolio managers at GAM, comment on the attractiveness of European ABS in a post-Brexit, negative interest rate world.

  • 5-years-credit-opps-icons

    Thursday, July 21, 2016

    5 Years Best in Class

    Interview with Anthony Smouha, CEO of Geneva-based Atlanticomnium S.A. and portfolio manager of a range of credit portfolios, Grégoire Mivelaz, co-fund manager, and Jeremy Smouha, CEO of Atlanticomnium UK.

  • peripheral-banks_icon

    Tuesday, July 19, 2016

    Continental Europe after Brexit

    Niall Gallagher, investment director of European Equities at GAM discusses the impacts of the UK referendum outcome to leave the European Union on continental Europe.

  • leave_icon

    Friday, June 24, 2016

    Charles Hepworth on the UK's decision to leave the EU

    Charles Hepworth, Investment Director at GAM, comments on the UK's decision to leave the European Union (EU)

  • corp-bonds-insights-icon

    Friday, June 10, 2016

    The Demise of the Zero Yield Bound

    Negative bond yields used to be a theoretical concept. However, they are fast becoming a feature of an ever-increasing amount of bonds. Tim Haywood, investment director for absolute-return strategies, explains how his team deals with and profits from this phenomenon.

  • wadhwani_us_election_icon

    Tuesday, May 24, 2016

    Clinton, Trump & the Markets

    Comment from Sushil Wadhwani, CTA investment manager for GAM and CEO of Wadhwani Asset Management.

  • three-lessons-titanic_icon

    Thursday, April 14, 2016

    Three Lessons from the Titanic

    The sinking of the Titanic on 14 April 1912 offers an opportunity to reflect on financial markets and the surveillance of the risk tolerance needed.

  • the_committed_investor_icon

    Thursday, April 07, 2016

    The Committed Investor

    Andrew Green is longevity personified having been at GAM – where he now runs the Global Diversified and UK Diversified funds – since 1983. He talks about his views, investment style and work with Nils Taube in an interview with Lawrence Gosling taken from the book Intelligent Investors.

  • em_boost_icon

    Thursday, March 31, 2016

    Emerging Market Boost

    Emerging markets have rebounded in recent weeks. Enzo Puntillo, investment manager for emerging market debt, explains why the rally could continue and which areas are best-positioned to benefit.

  • gold_icon

    Wednesday, March 09, 2016

    As Good as Gold – the Case for Gold Miners

    John Lambert, Investment Manager, discusses the case for gold miners.

  • market_turmoil_icon

    Thursday, February 25, 2016

    Outsmarting Market Turmoil

    US equity markets started the New Year on a jittery note. Andy Kastner, portfolio manager of a long/short US equity strategy, explains how investors can navigate market turbulence and benefit from rising and falling share prices.

  • politics_markets_icon

    Wednesday, February 24, 2016

    When Politics and Markets Collide

    Julian Howard, Investment Director, looks at the influence of political risks on financial markets and how investors should factor these risks into their investment strategy.

  • tighter_monetary_policy_icon

    Thursday, February 04, 2016

    What Tighter Monetary Policy Might Mean for Investors

    Julian Howard, Investment Director at GAM discusses how to invest as a new rates cycle begins.

  • hidden-indicators_icon

    Wednesday, January 06, 2016

    Hidden Market Indicators

    GAM’s investment professionals reveal some of the hidden indicators they’re watching to be ahead of the curve.

  • dont-be-the-turkey_icon

    Tuesday, December 29, 2015

    Anti-Panic Manual – Don't Be The Turkey

    More often than not, our fears are unjustified, or not supported by statistics. Riccardo Cervellin, Country Head Italy, and Carlo Benetti, Head of Market Research & Business Innovation Italy, look at how fear can make investors their own worst enemies.

  • global_dividends_icon

    Tuesday, December 22, 2015

    The Dangerous Allure Of Dividends

    Dividend-paying stocks are attractive in a world of near-zero interest on bond investments. However, only picking the highest payers is too simple an approach and may risk ending with a dangerously unbalanced portfolio, in our view.

  • xmas-wishes-icon

    Monday, December 21, 2015

    5 Wishes & A Dollop Of Luck

    What is on your wish list this holiday season? GAM’s Larry Hatheway, Group Head of Multi-Asset Portfolio Solutions and Group Economist, puts forward a few aspirations for the common good.

  • political-risks_icon

    Wednesday, December 16, 2015

    Political Risks In 2016

    Geopolitical risks are inherently difficult to predict, but here are some of the key issues GAM investment experts are watching in 2016.

  • underdog-stocks-icon

    Friday, December 11, 2015

    GAM 2016 Outlook – 5 Underdog Stocks to Watch

    GAM Outlook for 2016.

  • corp-bonds-insights-icon

    Tuesday, December 08, 2015

    Is the Good Run for Corporate Bonds over?

    Darren Reece, Investment Manager, discusses the outlook for the corporate bond market and potential opportunities in the market.

  • sideways_markets_icon

    Tuesday, December 01, 2015

    Investing For Sideways Markets

    Sideways markets need not be boring. Julian Howard, investment director at GAM, explains why this environment actually offers potential for outperformance.

  • icon_buildings

    Thursday, October 29, 2015

    The Case For Cash

    Holding cash when value is hard to find is not lazy.

  • mivelaz_gregoire

    Monday, September 28, 2015

    Subordinated debt should work well in a rising rates environment

    Interview with Gregoire Mivelaz, fixed income manager at Atlanticomnium S.A. The Geneva-based boutique manages a credit strategy for GAM.

  • wadhwani_sushil

    Wednesday, July 29, 2015

    Comeback of the Machines?

    Dr Sushil Wadhwani, founder and CEO of Wadhwani Asset Management and former member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, explains why he expects managed futures strategies to perform well over the coming years.

  • puntillo

    Friday, July 17, 2015

    Heterogeneity in emerging markets calls for a selective approach

    Enzo Puntillo, Investment Director for emerging market debt strategies, discusses how emerging economies are heading into different directions and what the implications for his investment strategy are.

  • wainer_graham

    Wednesday, June 03, 2015

    Keeping the faith with US equities

    Graham Wainer, Group Head of Investments – MACS

  • seo

    Tuesday, May 19, 2015

    Cat bonds and the bundling misconception

    Dr John Seo, Co-Founder and Managing Principal at Fermat Capital Management, LLC discusses the rise of complex, non-transparent risk bundling within the reinsurance industry and how the cat bond asset class is unaffected by this.

  • gorman

    Monday, April 27, 2015

    Don't try this at home: Avoiding the pitfalls of local emerging market debt investing

    Caroline Gorman, Investment Manager, responsible for GAM’s emerging market debt strategies throws the spotlight on the potential pitfalls to be found when trading emerging market local debt.

  • seo

    Tuesday, April 14, 2015

    Cat bonds - issuance, yields and what's to come

    Following April’s record issuance, Dr John Seo talks on the supply / demand dynamics of the cat bond market and how first-quarter returns aren’t always a guide to full-year potential.

  • mcnamara_paul

    Thursday, February 26, 2015

    Hard vs local currency EM bonds – focus on credit risk, not FX risk

    Comment from Paul McNamara, Investment Director at GAM.

  • friedman_alex

    Monday, December 15, 2014

    Active managers – reports of their demise are greatly exaggerated

    Reports of their demise are greatly exaggerated.

  • seo

    Tuesday, July 01, 2014

    The cat bond misconception

    Investors on the hunt for yield have turned the limelight on the cat bond market, but this flurry of attention has not been the primary driver for the asset class’s growth.