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America is re-employing and re-lockdowning at the same time...

Thursday, July 02, 2020

US jobs numbers today continue to defy the worsening Covid-19 case numbers on the ground. They handsomely beat even the most optimistic forecasts, with 4.8 million payrolls added in June against expectations of a 3 million increase, along with a participation rate that ticked higher over the month. Overall, the unemployment rate now stands at 11.1%, suggesting an economy that is getting slowly back to work following the lockdown and the massive spike in unemployment claims. The pessimist would say that this data is all backward-looking and does not account for the re-lockdowns affecting some states following sharp spikes in Covid19 cases. In other words, while it may look good, it also may not be that informative of the direction of travel from here. Equity markets like it nonetheless, with the broader indices all rallying higher following the data release.

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