The US jobs report filed on 5 June was stunningly contradictory on the face of it and has surprised all expectations and forecasts. While everyone was expecting the US to continue to show a deteriorating picture in employment with a further 7.5 million jobs forecast to be lost in May, the reality saw 2.5 million gain employment.
The level of unemployment was expected to come in at 19%, but actually stands at 13.3%. This report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, while it firmly eclipses the levels seen in the financial crisis of 2007 / 08, is still some way short of the Great Depression which saw unemployment levels spike to 24.9% in 1933.
If America reopening early is the reason for this, then Trump will clearly be happy – it is a positive for the economic recovery for sure but confounding nonetheless.