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US election result hangs in the balance

Wednesday, November 04, 2020

If 2020 couldn’t get any worse, we now have the potential for a contested US election result with no clear winner at this moment in time in the race to 270 Electoral College votes and the keys to the US presidency. This is the worst case news for the markets which had been expecting and most recently been pricing in a significant ‘blue wave’ win. The likelihood for significant and immediate fiscal stimulus has thus been reduced and markets will inevitably have to price that in, in short order. There are still a few possibilities for Biden to claw back the share of votes through delayed counting of postal votes, despite Trump declaring he would fight that (which he cannot). This could play out for a few days still and markets will remain volatile.

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