Transient inflation narrative looks shaky

The US Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) rose by a touch more than forecast in September, gaining 0.4% over the month.

15 October 2021

On an annual basis, CPI is now up 5.4% over the rolling year, clearly well above the Federal Reserve’s goal. The notion of transient inflation now looks shaky at best as continual supply issues crimp the pandemic recovery. This is as much a US issue as it is elsewhere across the globe. As producers push prices higher to offset their own inflation issues that are stressing margins, the consumer is bearing the brunt of this inflation bump. As wage demands rise, the feedback loop is in danger of becoming self-reinforcing and this all but pushes the Federal Reserve to act at some point to try to contain this anything but transient inflation picture.

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Charles Hepworth

Investment Director

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