With higher taxes, energy costs and the impact of Omicron, the UK’s GDP prints may not be as strong as in November.
The UK economy surprised quite strongly to the upside in November, as measured by the monthly GDP print which recorded a 0.9% jump on the month against estimates of a 0.4% advance. This blow out GDP print now takes the UK economy finally back above its pre-pandemic level, last achieved in February 2020. But before we all start popping the champagne corks, there is the obvious missing elephant in the room here – that of Omicron. With many workers being forced to isolate due to the explosive case growth we have witnessed in the UK, December and January’s monthly GDP prints will be severely impacted. Couple that with higher taxes and energy costs later next quarter and the consumer outlook is far from rosy.
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