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UK avoids recession

GDP figures for the final quarter of 2022 were flat at 0%

10 February 2023

The UK economy has seemingly avoided the technical definition of a recession for the final half of 2022 as GDP figures for the final quarter of the year were flat at 0% after a decline of 0.3% in the third quarter. While we may all breathe a sigh of relief, this was broadly in line with expectations. The standalone month of December however saw a 0.5% fall in GDP as strike action began to bite into the services sector. January will likely see a similar negative reaction, so the outlook still looks to the downside for UK GDP and any technical recession bells will only start ringing more loudly as we move through this first quarter. Recession or stagnation – these are really the only two possible outlooks for the UK and this is the overriding reason for our negative views on UK risk assets.

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The information in this document is given for information purposes only and does not qualify as investment advice. Opinions and assessments contained in this document may change and reflect the point of view of GAM in the current economic environment. No liability shall be accepted for the accuracy and completeness of the information. Past performance is not an indicator for the current or future development.

Charles Hepworth

Investment Director
My Insights

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