The Disruptive Strategist: The release of ChatGPT-3 highlights the acceleration of AI

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The recent release of “ChatGPT-3” has taken the internet by storm. David Goodman discusses some of the attributes and applications of the AI chatbot, and how AI could disrupt industry over the next decade.

24 January 2022

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What is happening?

The recent release of artificial intelligence (AI) chatbot “ChatGPT-3” has taken the internet by storm. A free service, released by OpenAI. We recommend you take a look for yourself and peer into the future: https://chat.openai.com/chat.

What is Open AI?

OpenAI was founded in 2015 by a group of entrepreneurs and researchers, including Elon Musk and Sam Altman. It is based in San Francisco and conducts AI research. Microsoft has a USD 1 billion investment in the company, which has the goal of advancing the field of AI in a responsible way.

What is ChatGPT and why all the fuss?

A powerful AI tool, ChatGPT generates human-like text responses to user input in real-time. In contrast to previously available AI tools, the big leap forward is ChatGPT’s genuinely life-like response to inquiries, making it almost impossible for users to tell that they are dealing with AI. Given many people’s preference for dealing with humans over automation, this aspect will be a game changer. ChatGPT offers users a truly remarkable experience and is just the start of a huge wave of AI applications that we expect to hit the market soon, bringing rapid disruption.

How it works and practical applications

Unlike Google Search – to which it is often compared – ChatGPT is primarily used for tasks that involve generating or processing human-like text, as opposed to finding information on specific topics. At this stage, it is not generally regarded as a replacement for Google Search, but the jury is out (we cover this in more detail below).

By analysing user inputs and using its large dataset of language patterns, ChatGPT can generate appropriate responses and can converse with users within a wide range of applications.

The specifics of its use include:

  • Machine translation – translating from one language to another
  • Summarisation – generating summaries of long documents
  • Dialogue – producing suitable responses to user input
  • Content creation – generating descriptions of products or articles

ChatGPT’s ability to produce natural, human-like responses is likely to be particularly useful for customer service applications, allowing chatbots to handle diverse inquiries and complaints more efficiently than humans. It can also be used for virtual assistants, where it can help users with tasks such as scheduling, finding information and answering questions.

Initial impact since launch

Within five days of its unveiling on 1 December 2022, ChatGPT had more than one million users. Users were highly enthusiastic on social media, sharing examples of ChatGPT’s capabilities - from fixing code, writing essays, generating poems, to translating text and summarising long documents and articles. It has been a resounding success so far. Arguably one of the most astonishing aspects of this tool is how the answers are presented in a coherent, easily digestible format, which is not the case with traditional search engines.

Will ChatGPT disrupt Google Search?

It is unlikely that tools such as ChatGPT will replace search engines as we know them, in our view. Search engines are a very effective way of finding specific information on the internet and are not expected to be replaced by chatbots in the near future. However, in a scenario that is perhaps more evolution than revolution, we do anticipate that chatbot technology and search engines will become integrated.

Morgan Stanley technology analyst, Brian Nowak, points out that as a rule of thumb, when a new technology comes along, one should apply the “10x rule”. For ChatGPT to displace Google search and win over its four billion daily users, the new offering must be 10 times better. He remains unconvinced that learning about topics (ChatGPT) and search for specific items or specific topics are the same use case. In addition, while the street is talking a lot about AI and ChatGPT at the moment, the fact is Google has been investing in leading machine learning and AI technologies for over five years - so we are likely to see equally, if not more, impressive tools from Google in the near future.

Chat GPT-3 is just one example of AI. How will AI disrupt industry over the next decade?

AI technologies are transforming the way we do business and have the power to shake up traditional business models in a major way. Forward thinking companies are already using chatbots and AI to disrupt incumbent companies and gain a competitive edge. For example:

  • In the e-commerce world, Amazon and Alibaba are using chatbots and AI to personalise the shopping experience and make recommendations to customers based on their past purchases and browsing history. Traditional retailers will need to compete with the convenience and personalised recommendations offered by these e-commerce giants or risk being left behind.
  • In the transportation industry, ride-sharing companies like Uber and Lyft are using AI to optimise routes and improve the efficiency of their services, leaving conventional taxi and car rental businesses to play catch up.
  • In the financial services industry, robo advisors such as Betterment and Wealthfront are using chatbots and AI to provide personalised investment advice to customers, disrupting traditional financial institutions that rely on human advisers.
  • And in the healthcare industry, telemedicine companies like Teladoc and Amwell are using the technology to provide virtual medical consultations, disrupting established, in-person healthcare models.

These are just a few examples of businesses that are using chatbots and AI to shake up traditional industries, but with these technologies constantly evolving, it is inevitable that more companies will adopt them to keep abreast of the competition. It is becoming clear that the key to business success in the coming decade will be to embrace chatbots and AI. Those businesses slow to adapt are at risk of disruption.

Important legal information
The information in this document is given for information purposes only and does not qualify as investment advice. Opinions and assessments contained in this document may change and reflect the point of view of GAM in the current economic environment. No liability shall be accepted for the accuracy and completeness of the information. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or current or future trends. The mentioned financial instruments are provided for illustrative purposes only and shall not be considered as a direct offering, investment recommendation or investment advice. There is no guarantee that forecasts will be realised.

David Goodman

Investment Manager
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