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Outlook 2024: Andrea Quapp (Multi Asset Solutions - Continental Europe)

Multi-Asset – Challenges and opportunities

December 2023

Challenges and opportunities: Click here to read GAM's investment managers' Outlooks for 2024

We have passed through the valley of tears in 2023, with the hope that it can become a place of springs. This does not mean that the coming year will be less challenging in terms of events, but we are optimistic that we can overcome any obstacles.. We will keep calm and carry on.

Bonds: Balancing duration

The bond markets have experienced more volatility than the equity markets. This is certainly due to the repositioning and shift in investors’ preferences after decades of favouring stocks over bonds. The central banks were slow to respond to the rising inflation rates, and they will probably act similarly in the countermovement. For this reason, we favour a strategy that balances the duration of bonds with a tilt towards corporate bonds.

Equities: A boost for the earnings outlook

We believe that the US dollar will lose its appeal as the interest rate gap with the European and Swiss currencies narrows and the US government debt skyrockets. This will benefit all economies that depend on imported energy. As a result, inflation rates will ease and wage pressures will subside, which we think will definitely boost the earnings outlook for companies. With strong demand for goods and services, we foresee higher profits.

The traditional asset classes of equities and bonds have regained their attractiveness, after a long period of underperformance. This, we think, will discourage investors from seeking other asset classes unless they have a comparable risk/return profile. However, in our view diversification by spreading your investments across a variety of asset classes is always an advantage.

Our model indicators suggest three main strategies:

  • Reducing the exposure to government bonds
  • Increasing the exposure to equities
  • Avoiding real estate investments from a global perspective.
Important disclosures and information
The information contained herein is given for information purposes only and does not qualify as investment advice. Opinions and assessments contained herein may change and reflect the point of view of GAM in the current economic environment. No liability shall be accepted for the accuracy and completeness of the information contained herein. Past performance is no indicator of current or future trends. The mentioned financial instruments are provided for illustrative purposes only and shall not be considered as a direct offering, investment recommendation or investment advice or an invitation to invest in any GAM product or strategy. Reference to a security is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. The securities listed were selected from the universe of securities covered by the portfolio managers to assist the reader in better understanding the themes presented. The securities included are not necessarily held by any portfolio nor represent any recommendations by the portfolio managers nor a guarantee that objectives will be realized.

This material contains forward-looking statements relating to the objectives, opportunities, and the future performance of the U.S. market generally. Forward-looking statements may be identified by the use of such words as; “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “should,” “planned,” “estimated,” “potential” and other similar terms. Examples of forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, estimates with respect to financial condition, results of operations, and success or lack of success of any particular investment strategy. All are subject to various factors, including, but not limited to general and local economic conditions, changing levels of competition within certain industries and markets, changes in interest rates, changes in legislation or regulation, and other economic, competitive, governmental, regulatory and technological factors affecting a portfolio’s operations that could cause actual results to differ materially from projected results. Such statements are forward-looking in nature and involve a number of known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, and accordingly, actual results may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements. Prospective investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements or examples. None of GAM or any of its affiliates or principals nor any other individual or entity assumes any obligation to update any forward-looking statements as a result of new information, subsequent events or any other circumstances. All statements made herein speak only as of the date that they were made.

Andrea Quapp

Lead Investment Director, Multi-Asset Class Solutions (MACS) Continental Europe
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