Global interest rates: Adrian Owens
Friday, July 17, 2020Adrian Owens discusses the opportunities in global interest rates and whether we are moving into a “returning to growth” phase post Covid-19.
We believe that fundamentals are going to, once again, become more meaningful drivers of marketsAdrian Owens, Investment Director for GAM Star Global Rates
Reasons to Invest
Attractive opportunities
The prospects for traditional asset classes remain uncertain, as central banks look to step back from unconventional policies; thus opportunities can be sought in uncorrelated strategies that seek to extract alpha from markets.Effective diversifier
The fund typically invests in interest rate and foreign exchange derivative instruments, thereby potentially achieving returns with attractive diversification characteristics to traditional fixed income and equity portfolios over short term, long term and crises horizons.Equity-like returns, fixed income levels of risk
By focusing on key relative value themes, the team seeks to run a fund concentrated enough to deliver equity-like returns, while providing enough diversification to achieve this with fixed income levels of risk, in terms of volatility and drawdown.Our Edge
Highly experienced manager
30+ years’ experience as an economist and investment manager enables Adrian Owens to successfully evaluate an array of factors, while employing an eclectic and pragmatic approach driven by economic fundamentals.
Flexible
Use of long and short positions, longer-term strategic themes and shorter-term tactical trades and an array of fundamental and technical styles, enables potential alpha generation across market conditions, while offering downside protection.
Liquid, transparent
The team focuses on only the most liquid markets, while giving investors full transparency on portfolio holdings, return and risk.
Outperformance during periods of weakness
With its focus on discretionary, relative value macro, the strategy has consistently outperformed during periods of fixed income market weakness, typically achieved with minimal net duration exposure.Philosophy and Process
Investment Philosophy
The manager believes that fixed income and currency markets are ultimately driven by economic fundamentals. However, prolonged periods of mispricing occur when other drivers, such as market sentiment, dominate. Therefore, managers who can identify the real market drivers and capture their shifts can successfully add alpha.
Investment Process
The manager’s top-down, thematic process is embedded with a combination of ex-ante and active risk management. Having determined the market backdrop, the team uses original economic research – focused mainly on developed and liquid emerging markets – to identify strong ‘economic stories’ which offer value. It seeks to capture these opportunities by analysing market valuations and building metrics for currency and rates ideas. The outcome is a set of fair valuations and stop loss limits for each market or currency. Trades are based on conviction, while technical analysis is used to size and time trades. Typically, the team’s 8-12 themes account for 60-80% of the portfolio’s risk capital. The remaining 20-40% is allocated to short-term, tactical trades, contingent on the market backdrop. Risk is actively managed throughout by monitoring correlation, diversification and liquidity, while hard stop loss limits are set for each trade at inception.
1. Define market backdrop
- Determine current market environment
- Evaluate growth drivers, risk appetite, correlation
2. Identify strong economic stories
- Global mandate, with a focus on developed and liquid EM
- Original economic research
3. Determine market valuations
- Evaluate bond markets and build valuation metrics for each currency pair idea
- Ex ante Risk management – focus on value, establish stops
4. Portfolio construction and risk management
- Prioritise trade ideas based on conviction
- Risk management – focus on theme correlation, diversification and liquidity
Investment Team
The Global Rates team is led by Adrian Owens, Investment Director, who has been involved in discretionary macro investing since 2004. Adrian’s 30-plus years as an economist and investment manager are at the heart of his ability to understand how macro factors drive market behaviour and are central to his aim to generate attractive, risk-adjusted returns across all market conditions.
Adrian is supported by Rahul Mathur and Scott Watson who are Investment Managers dedicated to the strategy. Rahul and Scott provide background research and support. Scott is the primary link with the execution desk and brings his understanding of market positioning and expectations to the investment process.
The team operates independently and has autonomy over its investment process, while being supported by GAM Investments’ risk team, which provides independent risk oversight, as well as investment administration and operations teams.
Our eclectic approach to investment, though driven by economic fundamentals, does at times place more weight on an array of other factors. We believe successful evaluation of the importance of such factors comes only from experienceAdrian Owens, Investment Director.
Our Thinking
Weekly Manager Views
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Weekly Manager Views: Fixed Income
05 June 2020At GAM Investments’ Weekly Fixed Income Meeting held on 2 June, four of our portfolio managers discussed their views on current market conditions.
Fund Information
Resources
Fund Profile - GAM Star Global Rates
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Key Risks
Counterparty Risk / Derivatives
If a counterparty to a financial derivative contract were to default, the value of the contract, the cost to replace it and any cash or securities held by the counterparty to facilitate it, may be lost.
Leverage Risk
Derivatives may multiply the exposure to underlying assets and expose the Fund to the risk of substantial losses.
Interest Rate Risk
A rise or fall in interest rates causes fluctuations in the value of fixed income securities, which may result in a decline or an increase in the value of such investments.
Currency Risk
The value of investments in assets that are denominated in currencies other than the base currency will be affected by changes in the relevant exchange rates which may cause a decline.
Market Risk / Emerging Markets
Emerging markets will generally be subject to greater political, market, counterparty and operational risks.
Capital at risk
All financial investments involve an element of risk. Therefore, the value of the investment and the income from it will vary and the initial investment amount cannot be guaranteed.
Contacts
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Gam Star Global Rates is a sub-fund of GAM Star Fund p.l.c., registered office at George’s Court, 54-62 Townsend Street, Dublin 2, Ireland, an umbrella investment company.